I try to stay away from regurgitating rumours, but this has interesting implications for Canada. Sprint runs a WiMax 4G network which has very little implication for Canadian carriers, but the fact that the new iPhone may be able to run on T-Mobile’s “4G” (I say that because it is in fact HSPA+ and not true 4G/LTE) network could mean big things for Canadians.

T-Mobile runs on the same AWS band that new entrants Wind Mobile and Mobilicity run on – whatever phones work with T-Mobile’s high-speed network should also work with Wind and Mobilicity. The new entrants haven’t had much trouble growing their subscriber base, but there are still potential customers waiting in the wings because they want the iPhone.

One only needs to look south of the border to see how big a boost an AWS iPhone will be for Wind and Mobilicity. When the CDMA iPhone 4 finally came to Verizon, it was the most successful phone launch in Verizon history.

The new entrants can offer lower prices and a better experience (although that can be debated), but they still suffer from two issues: lack of coverage area, and limited phone selection. If you stay primarily in one of the cities that they have coverage, then maybe the first issue isn’t really an issue for you. If you don’t need the latest and greatest phone, then maybe the second issue isn’t really an issue for you.

But for some people, the connection service is a secondary decision and the device comes first, and those are the people who the new entrants still can’t get. A Nexus S would bring a premium Android phone to them and would go a long way to satisfying those potential customers.

Referencing a source high up in T-Mobile’s organization, they claim an 80% chance that iPhones will be available on T-Mobile by the end of Q3 this year (late September). Deutsche Telekom, carrier of the iPhone in Germany and T-Mobile’s parent company, was rumoured to have influence in the deal.

This could be very good news for Wind Mobile as their relatively thin offering of phones is due to them being on the 3G-AWS band, which is slightly different from the standard 3G bands that most carriers operate on. T-Mobile is also on the AWS band, which means that if the iPhone is going to work for T-Mobile, it will work for Wind.

The iPhone 4 doesn’t list the AWS band in its specs, but it could be that the phone is indeed capable of operation on the appropriate frequencies and that they just aren’t listed. Unlocking the phone (which hasn’t been done yet), and trying a T-Mobile (or Wind) SIM would be the first test.

Many have suggested that Verizon would be the next likely candidate once the AT&T exclusivity contract runs out, but for now Verizon runs a CDMA network, while the iPhone is a GSM phone. However, Verizon is upgrading to LTE in the fall, and it looks like it will be a GSM network, so this CDMA argument could be moot.

I got to speak with Will Novosedlik, VP – Brand & Communications, and Scott Campbell, Chief Marketing Officer. I was mostly interested in the future expansion of the Wind “Home” zones, future network upgrades, and phone offerings.

Phones:

“We are not in the device business, we are in the service business, so there isn’t much we can do.”

That’s the gist of it folks. Wind would love to offer the iPhone, the newest HTC EVO/Incredible, and every BlackBerry phone in existence, but they have no control over the manufacturers building AWS-capable versions of their handsets. Wind (as well as Mobilicity and T-Mobile in the US) operate on the 3G-AWS band, which is slightly different from the standard 3G band that the other North American carriers use. This means that your iPhone 3GS will not work on the Wind network at 3G speeds, even if you unlock it and use a Wind SIM. You can presumably get voice and text, and data speeds will likely be limited to EDGE (think dial-up speeds).

RIM has apparently been great to Wind, and the two companies are working together quite well on ensuring that BlackBerry phones are 3G-AWS capable. Wind and RIM are going to be holding a series of promotions in the near future at sporting events and festivals, so watch out for those. Expect a solid offering of BlackBerrys in the future.

HTC has one phone on the Wind network – the HTC Maple. No word on any progress towards getting some of the new HTC superphones working, although it does seem that HTC is willing to make special versions of its phones for carriers. The EVO 4G is a WiMax-4G capable phone on Sprint’s network. Sprint is currently the only carrier in North America to use WiMax for 4G, and it looks like all the other carriers have plans to go with WiMax’s alternative technology, LTE. That HTC would make a WiMax version of their latest and greatest phone bodes well for the 3G-AWS carriers.

As for the iPhone – it’s anyone’s guess. Personally I don’t expect the next generation iPhone to come in an AWS version but that is pure speculation and could be completely wrong.

Of course the manufacturers need to be sure that they will sell enough of the AWS phones in order to justify making a different version. For many of them, there just isn’t enough demand right now. T-Mobile, Wind, and Mobilicity are the only AWS carriers in North America right now and all are relatively small players. Until they gain enough subscribers to get the manufacturers’ attention, the AWS handset market will remain fairly small.

That being said, Wind has a good relationship with T-Mobile, and are working together to build demand for AWS phones from the manufacturers. Apparently, they all have AWS handsets on their roadmap, so the phones are coming, it’s just a question now of when.

Android:

Pretty much the same as above. Android will become more available as manufacturers make AWS-capable Android phones.

LTE/4G:

Wind is able to upgrade to LTE along with the other carriers when they need to. There is no point in doing so now because there aren’t any LTE compatible phones out yet and it will be a while before they become widespread. If you’re looking to the future, Wind claims to be ready to upgrade with everyone else when the time is right.

Home Zone Expansion:

Wind is expanding its “Home” zones in all cities pretty much constantly. The Vancouver suburbs will largely be covered by the end of 2010, and the expansion will happen gradually and continually. Expect the same in Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, and Ottawa. I couldn’t get any more detail than that because even Wind doesn’t know exactly how fast the process will be.

When building out their network, Wind has to locate potential tower sites, contact the land owners, set up a lease agreement for the land to put up a tower, construct the tower, connect it to the existing network, test the system, and then go live. While they likely have the construction/connection/testing procedure down pat, the uncertainty and delays of locating and negotiating leasing agreements with individual landlords means they can’t give a solid timeline.

Summary:

There you have it. The phones will come when the manufacturers make them. The manufacturers will make them when there’s enough demand. Generating demand means growing the AWS carriers in numbers of subscribers. It’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem, but that’s how it goes.

Network expansion is progressing quickly and continually so all anyone can say is: be patient.

Any other questions, feel free to contact me and I’ll do what I can to answer.

I showed up a little after the early birds as I wanted to get a sense of what it was like for someone trying to get a Wind phone on launch day. As expected, there were quite a few people milling about, consumers and media alike, and some were enjoying the $1 hot dogs.

And Globalive chairman Tony Lacavera was out talking to media and potential customers all day too.

I stood in line and chatted with people all morning about phones, plans, carriers, and other things. The general feeling I got from people was that the phone selection with Wind wasn’t great, the “Home” zones were a little smaller than they would have liked, but the plans were simple and cheap.

Now, there are a few types of cellular customers. If you are a techy-gizmo type of person who needs the latest and greatest hardware, Wind probably isn’t for you. If you are more concerned about using the phone to talk and text, Wind looks like a good option. If you live way out in the suburbs or travel there often, Wind isn’t too great for you right now. If you’re an urbanite, Wind becomes an attractive option to consider. The people in line seemed to be in agreement about these points, and they also seemed quite knowledgeable about phones and carrier bands and roaming charges.

One guy I spoke to lives in Surrey and was getting a Wind SIM card for his BlackBerry Bold just to test things out (that’s the great thing about no contracts… you can test the service out and cancel anytime if you’re not happy). He was disappointed with the lack of coverage in Surrey and the somewhat cryptic “coming later in 2010″ note attached thereto, but still picked up his SIM card anyways.

If you’re in Vancouver (less UBC), North Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, or New Westminster, you’re covered by a Wind “Home” zone and are good to go. If you live in Delta, Surrey, Coquitlam, UBC, or beyond, well, Wind isn’t quite ideal just yet. Although I did hear rumours that some Wind customers visiting from Toronto were seeing Surrey as a “Home” zone last week, the official line is that it is an “Away” zone and you will be paying roaming charges. As to the progress of the expansion of the coverage area, all I can say is that it will be moving outwards consistently throughout the rest of the year, with the goal of the full advertised coverage being achieved at the end of this year. The rate at which that happens is unknown right now, and a lot depends on how quickly the process of negotiating with landlords for land to put up a tower goes, followed by tower erection, connection to the rest of the Wind network, and network testing.

After talking for a while outside, I made my way inside and got a few shots of the store. At that point a media rep saw me with my notepad out and quickly came over to take some questions and pass me along to the appropriate individuals. Be sure to check out the interview post for some more information.

In response to Mobilicity’s launch today, Globalive CEO Tony Lacavera made a post on the windmobile site. Most telling was this paragraph:

With new competition emerging, the principle of ‘buyer beware’ is going to become very important. When customers evaluate the competition, they need to understand what they’re getting and what they’re not. That means asking the right questions: Does this new player offer data, roaming?

Wise words, and they have certainly been gained from experience.

With this article I’d like to add more of a Canadian reaction to the iPad from the point of view of the mobile communications industry.

Yes, the iPad 3G is coming to Canada, reportedly in June. Expect a slight USD -> CAD markup on the device and more expensive data rates. Also, the iPad won’t be coming to all Canadian carriers.

What Will It Cost?

This is not a difficult question to ballpark. Extrapolating from the the ~10% markup on the lowest of the line in iPods (the 8GB iPod touch is $199 USD and $219 CAD), and Apple’s affinity for “nice” numbers, we’ll probably see prices similar to the following.

Predicted Canadian iPad Prices

As for the cost of the data plan, look for Bell, Telus, and Rogers to be fairly predictable and parallel each other. I’ll hazard a guess of $45/month for the unlimited* plan and $20/mo for the reduced usage plan of around 250MB. Asterisk may mean whatever caveats you suspect.

Now that I think about it, unless you go to youtube quite a bit on the device, you should be able to get away with 250MB of bandwidth. Sync it at home, take it out for browsing/email. Maybe a 1GB plan would be better.

Who Will Carry It?

The WiFi-only version should be available through normal channels – Apple Store, online, big boxes. As for 3G service, look at Telus, Bell, and Rogers to offer plans.

Do not expect to see the iPad with Wind/DAVE/Public Mobile.

Unfortunate as it may be, the 3G capabilities of the iPad do not allow it to be used on the 3G AWS band. If you visit the iPad specifications page, you’ll come across this information:

Wi-Fi + 3G model

• UMTS/HSDPA (850, 1900, 2100 MHz)
• GSM/EDGE (850, 900,1800, 1900 MHz)
• Data only²
• Wi-Fi (802.11 a/b/g/n)
• Bluetooth 2.1 + EDR technology

The 3G AWS band that Wind Mobile operates on, and that DAVE and Public Mobile will operate on is known as UMTS IV. It uses the 1700 MHz band for device-to-tower and 2100 MHz band for tower-to-device for communications. Notably missing is the 1700 MHz capability of the iPad, so no 3G AWS, so no Wind/DAVE/Public. At least for now.

VOIP

The iPad is not a phone, and probably shouldn’t be thought of as such, even with VOIP apps. The iPad would still have access to the full lineup of app store apps, including skype, fring, truphone and the like, and the mic input would allow one to use the iPad as a VOIP device. The always-on 3G data connection, combined with push notifications in some apps would make the iPad quite usable from a connectivity standpoint.

But do you want a 10″ phone?

Maybe with a handsfree bluetooth connection it makes sense. See the push notification pop up, put the bluetooth earpiece in, hit accept, put the iPad down and away you go. It seems like a good option to test on, but really this is just using a sub-optimal device when what we really need is something to happen on the iPod touch/iPhone front.

Either give us an iPhone on data only, or make a 3G-capable iPod touch.